NEW DELHI — A Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) poll published on Sep 25, 2026, suggests the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is poised to raise its repo rate by 25 basis points at the upcoming policy meeting, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s latest tightening step.
Poll Findings
The Moneycontrol poll surveyed a cross‑section of economists and market analysts ahead of the RBI’s scheduled meeting on Oct 7, 2026. Respondents overwhelmingly expected a modest increase, citing the Fed’s 25‑basis‑point hike announced earlier in September as a key reference point for Indian monetary policy.
Policy Context
RBI officials have repeatedly warned that inflation remains above the 4% target band, prompting a series of rate hikes since early 2023. The latest poll indicates that policymakers may view a 25‑basis‑point adjustment as sufficient to curb price pressures while avoiding a sharp slowdown in growth.
Market Reaction
Following the poll’s release, the benchmark Nifty 50 index slipped 0.4%, and the rupee weakened marginally against the dollar, trading at around ₹83.20 per USD. Bond yields on the 10‑year government security rose by roughly 5 basis points, reflecting investor anticipation of tighter monetary conditions.
Federal Reserve Influence
The Fed’s decision to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points on Sep 19, 2026, marked the first increase in over a year. Analysts note that the RBI’s anticipated move aligns with a broader global trend of central banks responding to persistent inflationary pressures.
RBI’s Stated Priorities
In a statement released after its last meeting, the RBI emphasized its commitment to anchoring inflation expectations and maintaining financial stability. The central bank has not disclosed its exact policy stance for the Oct 7 meeting, but the poll’s consensus suggests a continuation of the current tightening trajectory.
Implications for Borrowers
A 25‑basis‑point hike would raise borrowing costs for households and businesses. Mortgage rates, auto loans, and corporate financing are likely to see incremental increases, potentially tempering consumption and investment activity in the short term.
Outlook
Should the RBI implement the projected increase, the repo rate would move to a level not seen since early 2024. Market participants will monitor subsequent inflation data and global monetary developments for clues on the central bank’s next steps.
